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Products
We provide subscriptions to portfolios of commodities trading systems.
Our auto-trade commodities broker then auto-trades the portfolio of
systems for you. Subscription is via credit card, with automatic
monthly recurring billing.
Portfolio Descriptions (& Performance 2007-2009)
Portfolio
Descriptions (& Performance 2010-2012)
Our portfolios
focus primarily on:
-
Food (via
corn, wheat, and soybeans)
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Energy (via
crude oil and natural gas)
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Stock Index
(via S&P 500, Midcap 400, and Russell 2000)
-
Precious
Metals (via gold and silver)
We have solved the
age old problem of whether to a) show hypothetical historical
performance as it occurred over the passing of time, or b) show
hypothetical historical performance all generated today using the
portfolios as configured today and the trading systems as they exist
today. Portfolios and trading systems may at times be enhanced, and
using approach ‘a’ does not reflect how those changes would have played
out over the past. Using approach ‘b’ does not show how performance has
actually been over the past, i.e., it does not show ‘real time’
hypothetical historical performance. Our solution – show both.
(Before
continuing, a note to those of you unfamiliar with ‘hypothetical’
performance: Hypothetical performance is using all the trading
instructions produced by the trading systems/portfolio, and adjusting
those results with an allocation for price slippage and broker
commissions. Be careful when viewing hypothetical performance – not all
system vendors use a reasonable allocation for slippage and commissions,
and these factors, cumulative over time, are very important. Why not
simply show actual account performance instead of hypothetical
performance? Regulatory agencies strictly prohibit (will shut you down)
showing performance of one account. If one actual account is shown, all
accounts must be shown. That is impossible for system vendors, such as
us, because system vendors do not have access to customer accounts. And
brokers, who do have access to customer accounts, also cannot show
actual account performance for obvious practical reasons. Some
vendors/brokers do show single actual performance, but however good that
performance might be, I personally would shy away from anyone that I
know is willing to break the law.)
Hypothetical performance values shown on this page reflect the current
configurations of portfolios
and latest (if any) enhancement level of the component trading systems.
(This page may not always be totally up-to-date, as the changes we make
are not usually that significant and other tasks may take priority over
updating the details of this page.) Go to
the ‘Performance’ tab for this website to view ‘real time’ hypothetical
performance, i.e., hypothetical performance as it occurred as
time passed.
You will notice
that, within the links at the top of this page, no performance values
are shown for Dynamic Extra. Nor is its performance added to the
portfolios performance. This is because you cannot go backward in time
hypothetically and know what the discretionary trades, or their outcome,
would have been. You can only track them in ‘real time’.
The
‘Portfolio
Descriptions’ links above take you to
pages that at first glance look complicated. But if you will read and
follow the instructions at the top of those pages, you will find that
much descriptive and comparative information is provided on a single
page that would otherwise be difficult to assimilate via flipping among
numerous pages.
Some people like
to view Trade Station Strategy Performance Reports for the individual
trading systems which comprise the portfolios. These reports may be
seen at:
Trade Station Reports
We do not expect
that all the markets or all the systems of a portfolio will trade all
the time. Each system has a low/high volatility shut off. This shutoff
is considered and reflected in portfolio configuration, historical
performance, and subscription pricing. These periods of no or low
trading activity are also reflected in the calculations showing what
percentage subscription fees are of net trading gain. Note (on the
Performance page) that subscription costs have historically been less
than CTA performance fees would be. So don’t feel you have to
substitute something when components go thru shut off periods. We
provide our portfolios at ‘cut rate’ pricing (count the components)
largely to accommodate periods when multiple markets and systems will go
thru shut off periods, and also because some people may not wish to
trade all the markets represented in the portfolios. As you consider
what your subscription is costing in relationship to trading
performance, use at least 12 months as your time horizon, not just a
month or few. A few people have at some points in time remarked that
they paid subscription for the month but did not make money. I noticed
that those same people did not send us extra subscription money for the
previous months when they made big money. We are not registered to
charge customers based on last month performance. But that is good for
you – look at historical performance and observe that we generally would
have been charging you more.
We do not permit
‘loading up’ any markets or systems via substitution of portfolio
components.
January 2012 Addition/Update:
Read, on the ‘Performance’ page, that we
have made a change from rarely going to the sidelines or overriding
trading signals to becoming more active in these activities. This is
because the markets are currently and recently (see Nov and Dec results)
much out-of-character, and because danger is increased given the current
Middle East risks and European Union risks. One ramification of this
change in mode of operation is that actual monthly performance will
probably, at least for awhile, differ from simple take-every-trade
hypothetical monthly performance. We expect this will be a good thing
in terms of risk adjusted return, and hopefully not negative in terms of
absolute return. We encourage eligible subscribers to take advantage of
free ‘Dynamic Extra’ trades to provide diversification to subscribed
portfolio trading.
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Hypothetical Performance Disclosure
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All
performance data in this website is hypothetical performance.
Although you
have
already seen the CFTC hypothetical performance disclosure at the
entrance
to this
website, the CFTC prefers that it be shown multiple times at
strategic
places in
the website, such as on this page. |
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“HYPOTHETICAL
PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME
OF WHICH ARE
DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY
ACCOUNT WILL OR
IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE
SHOWN. IN FACT,
THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
HYPOTHETICAL
PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS ACHIEVED BY
ANY PARTICULAR
TRADING PROGRAM.” |
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“ONE OF THE
LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY
ARE GENERALLY
PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION,
HYPOTHETICAL
TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL
TRADING RECORD
CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK
IN ACTUAL
TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR ADHERE
TO A PARTICULAR
TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL
POINTS WHICH
CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE
ARE NUMEROUS
OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO
THE
IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE
FULLY ACCOUNTED
FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE
RESULTS AND ALL
OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.” |
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