Performance
             (Hypothetical performance after commission and slippage allowance)
 

This page shows hypothetical performance as it occurred over the passing of time.  This is called ‘real time’ hypothetical performance, and each month tracks each portfolio as it was configured that month.  The ‘Products’ page, in contrast, shows hypothetical performance all generated looking backward in time, using the portfolios and the trading systems configured as the are right now.  Both ways of looking at hypothetical historical performance have merit – that is why we go to the trouble of showing it both ways.  Now, to be exact, the performance information on this page is ‘real time’ only from July 2010 forward.  All other performance data on this page is backward looking, using the portfolios and trading systems as they were configured at the time ‘real time’ tracking began for the portfolio.  Notice from the provided performance data that ‘real time’ tracking for some portfolios began later than July 2010.

Performance Summary
(click above for performance chart)

When you look at the ‘Performance Summary’ data you will notice that, for the larger, more diversified portfolios, significantly more months show wins than losses.  That could lead you to believe that trading these portfolios is generally a smooth ride.  It isn’t so.  We have uncomfortable drawdown most months.  It is nice that most have not been at a net loss for the month at month end, and that our performance posting can thus look pretty overall, but the drawdowns are occurring.  The bottom line is that if you trade these portfolios with us, don’t do it expecting a smooth ride or straight line equity gain.

Perhaps we above exaggerated drawdown a bit, but we wanted to comment on their frequency of occurrence, because you cannot see that from the month end performance data.  Now a positive comment.  Up until July 2010, our largest portfolio was configured to target about 30k per month gains.  We since reconfigured our larger portfolios to now target only 1/3 to 1/2 the gains we formerly targeted.  We did this by making the portfolios smaller, less aggressive, and more diversified – and about half price.  So, in comparison to our previous ride, we now do have a smooth ride.

 
You will notice that, within the above ‘Performance Summary’ link, we do not yet show performance values for the ‘Saturn Dynamic’ and ‘Jupiter Dynamic’ portfolios.  That is because those portfolios include manually generated ‘dynamic’ adjustments, additions, and deletions to the trading instructions produced by the computerized trading systems, and our system assist (auto-trade) broker is not yet able to accommodate these additional orders.  We can do ‘Dynamic Extra’ (extra trades) now, and we will implement ‘Dynamic’ after either a) our current broker is more automated, b) we permit a second broker to trade our systems, or c) we become a money managing CTA and do the trading in-house.  We are working toward all three of these solutions – we do not know which will come to fruition first.  January 2012 Addition/Update:  I cannot wait longer for ‘a’, ‘b’, or ‘c’ to materialize.  The markets are recently and currently much out-of-character (see Nov and Dec results), and danger is increased given the current Middle East risks and European Union risks.  Background and solution:  Heretofore, throughout the years, we have provided our trading systems service in line with the preferences of system trading purists.  We have made only very minimal overrides, including not going to the sidelines, even when we deemed trading signals or markets unsuitable.  Thus, we needed ‘Dynamic’ discussed above in order to be able to make overrides as we deemed needed, especially to be able to go to the sidelines.  We needed this capability for customers, including me, who do not want to trade when trading signals or markets are unsuitable, or just too risky.  We were working (via ‘a’, ‘b’, and ‘c’) toward implementing this philosophy via the ‘Dynamic’ portfolios discussed above.  Meanwhile, while waiting, November and December gave us a thrashing.  I need to immediately be able, without hindrance, to be able to sideline trading and to skip or modify trading signals.  Thus, I am immediately implementing, in all portfolios, the philosophy of bypassing trading signals and markets I deem unsuitable for my systems, or just too risky considering the times.  I will of course not be able to censor every losing signal or unsuitable market period, and I will of course unfortunately bypass some winning trades.  And, I do realize I may lose some system trading purists subscribers, and that brokers may prefer systems that conduct more trading and without sideline time.  But subscription income and broker commissions cannot be my primary goal.  For additional diversification, I encourage subscribers, who are eligible and have adequate margin, to participate in ‘Dynamic Extra’ trading - it is very different (diversified) from the ‘directional only’ trading done in the portfolios.  Although it too will have some ‘directional only’ trading, it will have primarily non-directional trading, plus sometimes some low cost, low risk, and low probability, but high potential, shoot-the-moon trades.  There have been only a few ‘Dynamic Extra’ trades to-date, but activity there will be increasing.

Some people like to view Trade Station Strategy Performance Reports for the individual trading systems which comprise the portfolios.  These reports are generated looking backward in time, using the trading system as it exists today.  So we placed the link to those reports on the ‘Products’ page instead of on this ‘real-time, as it happened, historical hypothetical performance page.